Instead, what we are likely to see is re-globalisation. This means that the process of de-globalisation which some observers have warned about is unlikely to dominate in the coming years. The tensions between the US and China are playing out in a different way in the global arena today.Īlignment, for example, is not exclusive, as states try to engage with one power in one sphere and with the rival in another. That is why it is unlikely that history will repeat itself and deliver a cold war similar to the one in the previous century. Today, choosing a side would mean turning one’s back on economic gains from investment and trade with the other camp. Globalisation also makes the choice of exclusive alignment much more costly. This means countries caught in the middle of the China-US rivalry would be able to “bargain” not just on defence but also on economic terms. That is because they risk an immediate and massive backlash from global public opinion, which is amplified by technological interconnectedness and social media.įurthermore, China, unlike the Soviet Union, is not just a strategic rival to the US, but also an economic one. Today, the ability of superpowers to instigate regime change with impunity is considerably more limited. Indeed, throughout the Cold War, Washington and Moscow backed a series of coups and insurgencies in Africa, Latin America and Asia, trying to sway countries into their spheres of influence. What sphere of influence a country would fall into was determined not only by ideology and the interests of political leaders, but also by threats and coercion coming from the great powers. Of course, there was the non-aligned movement, which promoted decolonisation and sought to stave off an escalation into a nuclear war between the USSR and the US, but many of the members of the movement still had to choose a camp to join. Back then, countries were stuck between a rock and a hard place and had to choose a side. Yet, the situation in global politics and economy today is quite different from the post-World War II era, when the Soviet Union and the US faced off. US officials have also indicated that they are thinking of relations with Beijing in those terms.
As tensions between China and the United States are escalating, there is much talk among scholars and commentators about a new Cold War between the two powers.
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